WHEN the current England-wide lockdown ends on December 2, the country is due to be placed back into a system of regional tiered restrictions – but which tier will Andover be in?

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has announced today how the new restrictions will work, and it is expected that the measures will be tougher and more areas will be placed in the highest level of restrictions, Tier 3.

Mr Johnson said in his speech to the House of Commons that coronavirus infection rates are flattening off across England as a result of the second lockdown.

But he added that the nation is not out of the woods yet, and say: “"But with expansion in testing and vaccines edging closer to deployment, the regional tiered system will help get the virus back under control and keep it there.”

An announcement on which area will be placed in which tier is due to be made on Thursday.

Ahead of this, comparing the current rates of Covid infection in Andover with those before of the second lockdown may give an idea of which tier the county may be placed in.

Before the new lockdown began on Thursday, November 5, Andover was in category 'medium' along with the rest of the country. This was the lowest risk tier available though as its name suggested, meant the risk of infection was 'medium'. 

A study has found Andover is unlikely be classed as a coronavirus ‘hotspot’ when the second national lockdown ends.

A model created by Imperial College London says it is 63 per cent likely that the Test Valley council area will have 100 cases per 100,000 people by December 6, four days after lockdown is due to end.

The university’s Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis classes areas with such a rate as a Covid-19 ‘hotspot’.

The Imperial College model is based on reported cases and weekly reported deaths, combined with mathematical modelling, which results in the probability of an area becoming a hotspot in the following weeks.

The Test Valley Council area has a current rolling rate of 106.2 cases per 100,000 people, according to the latest Government data, which is below the national average.

However, the Government coronavirus dashboard shows Hampshire as a whole has already hit the ‘hotspot’ figure, with a rolling rate of 147.2per 100,000 in the week up to November 17.

The Imperial modelling suggests the national lockdown is unlikely to have brought the county’s rolling rate below 100 by early December.

The Government will be looking at the rolling rate, number of cases and the number of people in hospital with the virus, as it decides what restrictions will be in place over the Christmas period.

Leader of Test Valley Borough Council Cllr Phil North said from what he's read, it seems large parts of the country will be placed into higher tiers than before.

He wrote: "The Prime Minister has this afternoon confirmed that the national lockdown will come to an end on the 2nd December. This means that all non-essential retail can re-open from next Wednesday. Crucial for businesses here in Test Valley, especially in the run up to Christmas.

"Although the stay at home instruction will end next week, we will, however, be back into a tiered system. See the below graphics.

"From what I’ve heard and read today, it seems that that large parts of the country will be placed into higher tiers then they were before. That’s slightly ominous for us, as we were previously in the lowest (medium tier). I really hope we will be again, as that’s crucial for our hospitality sector, but we won’t get confirmation on that until later this week. I’ll keep you all updated."

What is the difference between tier 2 and 3?

Tier 2 would see pubs/restaurants only able to serve alcohol with a meal.

Tier 3 would see all hospitality shut except for delivery/takeaways. Indoor entertainment would also close with none of the exemptions allows before lockdown (such as for trampoline parks in Basingstoke).

Shops, gyms, personal care (such as hairdressers), collective worship, weddings, outdoor sports will all return, and the rule of six will apply across all tiers. The 10pm hospitality closures will end.

There is no mixing of households indoors in either tier 2 or 3.

The Government says which areas are going into which tiers will be announced on Thursday – based on the latest data.